Falling Rolls Threaten North East Schools – Time for Action
This week, North Tyneside Council announced plans to close and merge several schools in response to rapidly declining pupil numbers. Monkseaton Middle School is set to shut its doors, while a series of mergers are proposed across Monkseaton, Forest Hall, and Wideopen.
These are not isolated moves. They are the first visible signs of a much wider crisis facing schools right across our region.
The Sharpest Declines in the Country
The Education Policy Institute (EPI) has warned that pupil numbers in England are set to fall by more than 800,000 over the next decade. Nowhere is this sharper than in the North East.
- Primary rolls here are forecast to fall -12.7% by 2028/29, the steepest decline of any English region.
- Funding will follow, with -9% lost from primary budgets – again the worst hit nationally.
- Unlike most regions, the North East is also projected to see falling secondary rolls, with some areas facing double-digit losses.
Local variation paints an even starker picture: Redcar & Cleveland (-18% primary pupils, -14% funding), Hartlepool (-15% pupils, -12% funding), and Sunderland (-14% pupils, -10% funding) are among the hardest hit in the whole country.
Why This Matters
For schools, falling rolls create major challenges because funding is largely determined on a per-pupil basis. Budgets shrink when pupil numbers fall, often faster than costs can be cut. Schools still face the same fixed costs, from maintaining buildings to covering support staff and specialist provision. As a result, schools with rapidly declining rolls face difficult decisions on staffing and curriculum, and in some cases risk closure altogether.
Without government intervention, many schools will be forced into structural deficits, leading to further mergers, stripped-back curriculum, or closures. In disadvantaged areas like ours, this risks compounding inequality: less money in communities with the highest need.
North East Schools on the Frontline
On ITV Tyne Tees this week, Schools North East highlighted these pressures and called for urgent government action. Falling rolls must not be treated as a national “windfall” in school budgets. If so, areas of growth in the South will benefit, while the North East suffers cuts on top of entrenched disadvantage.
Our Call
Without a coordinated, data-informed strategy from government and local authorities, these trends risk deepening inequalities. Policymakers must urgently consider how admissions planning, school reorganisation, and funding mechanisms can adapt to ensure schools remain viable and able to provide high-quality education.
Government must:
- Adjust the funding formula to protect schools in regions with falling rolls.
- Use savings to strengthen deprivation-linked funding, not just flat per-pupil amounts.
- Ensure small schools at the heart of communities are not forced into closure.
The closure of Monkseaton Middle is not just a North Tyneside story, it is a warning of what lies ahead across the North East. Schools, families, and local leaders must be given a voice in shaping the future, and policymakers must act now to prevent a wave of closures that would tear the fabric of our communities.