Latest school places data: What it means for the North East
The latest data release on school places and pupil forecasts provides an important snapshot of how demand for education is shifting across England. While the national picture offers helpful context, the regional trends, particularly in the North East, highlight why careful planning and collaboration across the sector remain critical.
National picture: Stable primary capacity, growth in secondary
Across England, there were 9.1 million state-funded school places reported in 2024/25. This includes 5 million primary places and 4.1 million secondary places.
Primary capacity has remained broadly stable, increasing by just 1,300 places (0.03%) between May 2024 and May 2025. This reflects the ongoing decline in primary pupil numbers, a trend that began in 2018/19.
Secondary provision, however, has expanded more significantly. 64,000 additional secondary places were added over the same period. This increase largely reflects the recent peak in the school-age population moving through secondary education, as well as additional capacity identified through the national net capacity assessment programme.
Regional trends: Where the North East sits
Across England, primary pupil numbers are set to decrease by 4.9% between 2024/25 and 2029/30. At secondary, the pupil population is forecast to decline by 0.01% by 2031/32.
Looking across regions, London is seeing the largest decline in pupil numbers, followed by the South West and then the North East. The North East percentage decline across the forecast period for primary is 6.4%, and at secondary is 0.4%.
Last year’s forecasts for primary schools showed much steeper declines, especially in the North East with a decline of 8.1% between 2023/24 and 2028/29, the highest in the country. While the decline in the North East is not as steep as previously forecast, the downward trend is still significant and will shape planning decisions in the coming years. Additionally, this year’s forecasts for secondary schools highlight that the student population has peaked, as last year’s forecasts showed a slight increase in pupil numbers in our region (of 0.5%).
Understanding how these changes play out locally will be key for schools, trusts and local authorities as they consider future provision and sustainability.
Primary pupil numbers: Local variation across the North East
Within the North East, the picture varies between local authorities. At primary level, some areas are experiencing more pronounced declines than others.
In particular, Northumberland and North Tyneside are seeing some of the largest percentage reductions in pupil numbers in the region (declines of 9.2% and 8.9% respectively). These shifts reflect broader demographic trends, including lower birth rates and changes in local populations, which are affecting demand for school places.
For many schools, this means planning carefully around class sizes, staffing and the long-term use of estates.
Secondary forecasts: Similar trends emerging
A similar pattern can be seen in secondary forecasts. Nationally, the steepest declines are again projected in London, the South West, and the North East.
Within the region, Redcar and Cleveland stands out as experiencing a particularly high percentage decline in secondary pupil numbers, over 10%. Other LAs in the region, such as Sunderland and Newcastle, are forecast increases in pupil numbers by 2031/32. However, while there is an increase in these LAs between 2024/25 to 2031/32, numbers are beginning to decline towards the end of the forecast period. As with primary schools, falling rolls can bring financial and operational challenges, with funding so closely linked to pupil numbers.
Capacity
Capacity data for 2024/25 also highlights challenges with school places. Across England, 15% of schools were at or over capacity. The North East had the lowest number of schools at or over capacity, at 10%. This figure drops to 2.9% in Hartlepool, and just over 6% in Northumberland and County Durham.
While mainstream schools are facing declining pupil numbers, special school pupil numbers are above school places in all regions (7% over nationally, representing almost 11,000 school pupils). According to a report published by the NFER this week: ‘The increase in the number of pupils in state special schools and AP is also likely to mean additional demand for teachers. Pupil numbers are expected to rise by 8.2 per cent by 2027/28. An equivalent rise in the FTE number of teachers would equate to around 2,300 more teachers’.
Planning for the future
For schools and trusts across the North East, these trends underline the importance of strategic, long-term planning. Changes in pupil numbers can place pressure on budgets and resources, but they also provide an opportunity to review provision, strengthen partnerships and ensure services are aligned with the needs of communities.
Alongside national changes in capacity and ongoing pressures in parts of the system, the focus for the region will be on maintaining high-quality education while adapting to a changing landscape.
As always, collaboration across schools, trusts and local authorities will be essential to ensure that every child in the North East continues to benefit from strong and sustainable education provision.
As the education landscape continues to evolve, we remain committed to championing the region and ensuring North East schools have the support they need to thrive. For every child, for every school, for the future of our region.